supergoods
Posts
Caffeine trends, hits and predictions

Caffeine trends, hits and predictions

Brent Vrdoljak
September 19, 2024

This is a remarkable chart.

Interest in the world’s most popular drug is at an all time high.
And no, I’m not talking about Kewpie mayo again, I’m talking about caffeine.

Google Trends data - worldwide interest in the term “caffeine”

In this article, I’m going to take a look at:

What’s driving the overall trend towards energy enhanced products
Some interesting new products breaking through
Predictions on where it might be heading

So grab a coffee and settle in for an episode I’m calling…

This article is just an excuse to use this character and title tbh.

What drives trends?

The world is complex and no one ever really understands the answer to this question.

But we can try to triangulate an answer by looking into possible hypotheses.

New entrants with loads of marketing $$

This one is kinda hard to ignore.

A new brand comes into a space - in this case, Prime, and drives a bunch of demand.

It’s pretty clear - the spikes in the search term “energy drink” coincide with the spikes in the words “Prime drink” and the overall rising interest in ‘caffeine’.

Google Trends data - global, past 5 years

New year, new me

Another interesting note is that there seems to be clear annual cycles, with interest picking up in January each year.

In terms of habits, this aligns with the “fresh start effect”.

This psychological phenomenon suggests that people are more motivated to pursue goals or make changes at the start of a new time period, like the beginning of a new year.

Makes sense that people are interested in caffeine in January - perhaps exploring new productivity habits, exercise routines or simply looking for an edge to achieve their goals for the year.

I’m kind of curious whether the whole movement around health optimisation, longevity and interest in people like Andrew Huberman (6.8m IG followers) and Peter Attia (1m+) has caused individuals to become more conscious of caffeine intake.

The influence of podcast, documentaries and social media feeds is hard to link back to hard data on purchase behaviour in retail. But anecdotally, I’ve witnessed it.

A million other reasons

If we listen to Euromonitor and other trend reports, interest in ‘energy’ is also driven by:

Working from home
Demanding lifestyles
Health consciousness
Self-optimisation culture
Workout schedules
Productivity
Increased stress
Pandemic
Excessive reading of trend reports and falling asleep (OK I made that one up)

So if these are the inputs in society creating interest, what are the outputs from companies jumping on the demand?

The ‘caffeinization’ of everything

I think the market of functional food and beverages is just getting going.

There are loads of products and brands breaking new ground with claims around ‘energy’, mostly still driven by caffeine content.

Here, I’ll highlight some interesting products I’ve seen lately. Starting from the obvious to the cool new stuff, right through to downright weird.

10 emerging products & segments in the energy space

Image credit: Pablo & Rusty’s

10. Cold Brew Coffee

OK so coffee seems like the obvious answer here, but stay with me.

Growth in cold brew coffee has been insane.

This global market segment has gone from nothing to an estimated $2 billion in the past 6 years, and it’s predicted to continue growing at 20%+ a year for the next five years.

Suntory are leading the charge with BOSS coffee, but my fav is P&R’s Nitro.

Image credit: Remedy Kombucha

9. Tonics & Shots

Coming to rise around 2020, the ‘Immunity Shot’ trend also extends to energy-based beverages.

The global functional shots segment is estimate to be worth around $800m and expected to continue growing 15%+ over the next five years.

It’s a fairly fragmented segment, key players are mostly independent companies and brands.

Image credit: Wakey Wakey

8. Effervescent Tablets

Massive segment with fairly concentrated market share - Berocca (BAYER) own the consumer space.

I think there’s an opportunity for new brands to cut through here - we’ve seen it locally in Australia in the growth Wakey Wakey.

The parent company Wellnex Life is publicly listed and although the revenue is unclear for this line, they are reporting growth and 40-50% gross margins.

Image credit: PepsiCo

7. Functional Soda

We’re going full circle here (almost). Coca Cola was originally marketed as a tonic with energy-boosting features (thanks to cocaine!).

Now, the soda market is swinging back a hundred years and there’s a rise in highly caffeinated soft drinks. No cocaine tho.

Image credit: I am Grounded

6. Functional Snack Bars

Caffeine loaded snacks are rising in popularity, with more mainstream grocery presence and increasing consumer demand.

The global market is still relatively small, estimated around $600M but predicted to hit $1B by around 2030.

I think this is an interesting space for M&A - small brands will carve out a new segment and the big guys will be slow to react but ultimately buy them up.

Image credit: Peak

5. Functional Chocolate

Chocolate naturally contains caffeine content. But it’s not typically marketed as ‘energy boosting’.

Brands are combining dark chocolate with natural ingredients to fill the afternoon void of sweet treats with a little boost.

It’s still developing, but Peak Chocolate is a notable player - claiming over 1 million bars sold in Australia.

Image credit: SUP

4. Functional Gummies

If we can have functional chocolate, we’re gonna need functional lollies.

This is a relatively new market segment and covers a range of functional benefits for the health conscious. Estimated at around $1.4 billion and likely to double over the next 5-8 years.

The supplement industry is well established, but new formats and methods will drive growth and opportunity for innovators.

Image credit: Zuum

3. Energy gum

This is probably my favourite innovation of the last 12 months.

Caffeinated chewing gum - it hits both the “I can’t be bothered” and “immediate boost” needs that meet me at 3PM everyday.

This is still an emerging segment so no clear data on size, but I predict this format will be wildly popular in 5 years.

Image credit: Revvies

2. Energy strips

I guess this is like Listerine Strips but for caffeine.

The main claim is that the body absorbs it faster than beverages and food and most of the targeting is towards athletes.

But I can see this format expanding into recreational use and beyond.

Image credit: Smoke Chasers

1. Caffeine meat rubs

I saw this at a trade show recently and it clicked to me that we have hit next level caffeine addiction as a society.

Idk if I’m just out of the loop as a vegetarian but two things stood out to me:

The pun - damn good
The use case - I’m sure it’s all about flavour but caffeine is still core to the message and proposition.

Watch what the weirdo’s do on their day off

This is a solid principle for understanding innovation and emerging trends.

If something seems weird to you, or strange or different or odd - pay attention.

Our natural tendency is to say “that’s weird” then move on. But perhaps pull that thread and see what’s underneath.

Tim Ferris credits this insight to his decision to invest early in Uber. Guess it paid off.

Where I think this buzz boom is heading

I don’t think every single one of these formats is going to hit mass-market mainstream adoption.

But in general, the best innovations bring together established habits and combine the familiar with the new.

Here are a THREE big predictions for the next wave of energy based products:

1. Caffeinated Wearables

Caffeine patches that are slow-release and continue to work throughout the day. There’s some early signs of companies gaining traction here and I think this space is going to be big because it hits across energy, health and convenience drivers.

2. Caffeinated Toothpaste

Hismile if you’re reading this, you can just wire me the money later. Taking the routine habit of brushing your teeth with the morning need for caffeine intake, I can see functional toothpaste becoming something people will try.

3. Caffeine Water

We’ve got protein water and that’s only just come through after a long time of protein obsession - so why not just straight up plain water with caffeine?

I’m kind of half joking half serious about these ideas - if you know someone working in this space or you wanna chat about it, let’s talk!

If you liked this article, share it with a friend.

If you didn’t like it, share it with someone you don’t like. Hopefully they don’t like it either.

What did you think of today's story?

Click to vote, it helps us improve.

Reply

or to participate.